O
ver
the
last
couple
of
years
-
starting
before
the
pandemic
-
real
estate
capital
values
have
been
slowly
falling.
Then,
the
fundamentals
deteriorated
during
the
pandemic
and
now,
as
we
slowly
start
to
emerge
from
the
restrictions
in
the
UK
(Continental
Europe
will
be
lagging),
uncertainties
and
risks
will
start
to
rise.
We
should
expect
the
real
estate
asset/fund
managers
typically
to
move through two phases in their responses. The first is one of denial.
They
continue
with
their
fund-raising
activities,
convinced
that
nothing
has
really
changed.
Indeed,
they
argue,
the
fundamentals
are
better
than
ever.
Interest
rates
in
Europe
(including
the
UK)
are
at
historically-low
levels,
as
the
bond
yields
are
not
far
off
their
historic
lows
–
and
the
latter
represent
the
risk-free
rate
base
from
which
property
assets
are
valued.
The
yield
premium
between
bond
yields
and
property
yields,
often
mistakenly
referred
to
as
the
risk
premium,
is
at
an exceptionally high level, making property look ‘attractive’ in an historic context.
What
is
usually
ignored
in
this
analysis
of
the
situation
is
that
investors
(including
the
fund
managers’
clients)
have
a
perception
of
capital
value
growth
expectations
and
a
view
of
the
risks
surrounding
those.
These
are
set
against
their
target
rate
of
total
returns,
typically
an
ungeared/unleveraged
5%
or
6%
p.a.
in
theory,
but
rather
more
in
practice,
with
debt
raising
it
to
around
7.5%
p.a.
or
more.
If
prices
were
stable,
most
of
the
returns
can
be
achieve
through
pure
income
and,
but
with
the
falling
yields
of
most
of
the
last
five
years,
together
with
gearing,
the
annual
total
return
has
often
reached
double
digits.
This
expectation
can
easily
reverse,
and
investors can foresee negative returns.
Globally,
this
has
fed
through
to
through
to
real
estate
buyers
becoming
nervous.
According
to
Real
Capital
Analytics
(September
2020),
the
percentage
of
agreed
transactions
that
subsequently
collapsed
reached
a
peak
in
2020
at
about
5%
in
the
Americas
and
Europe,
equivalent
to
European
peak
in
2012
and
above
its
peak
in
2008/9
(although
the
Americas
peaked
at
22%
then).
What
is
surprising
is
not,
however,
the
peaking
at
5%,
but
the
factr
that
it
is
not
huigher.
This
suggests
that
there
are
a
number
of
purchasers
in
the
market
who
felt
committed
to
tghe
deal
or
who believed that any additional risk was of a purely temporary nature.
Typically,
in
this
denial
phase,
little
notice
is
taken
of
the
types/identities
of
buyers
and
sellers
who
are,
or
are
not,
in
the
market.
If
they
did,
the
difference
between
the
buyers
and
the
sellers
would
be
a
useful
indicator
of
what
is
happening.
As
one
senior
fund
manager
once
said
to
me:
“I
never
buy
from
anybody
who
is
sharper
than
I
am”.
Some
other
asset
managers
convince
themselves that, with less competition, this is a buying opportunity.
The
second
phase
is
one
of
convincing
their
clients
that
the
investment
strategies
should
not
be
deflected
by
short-term
consideration.
Real
estate,
it
is
argued,
is
a
long-term
investment
and
transaction
costs
–
both
buying
and
selling
–
make
market
retreats
an
expensive
operation.
The
cycle is just that: a cycle.
There
is
much
merit
in
such
a
position,
but
it
ignores
one
essential
factor:
individual
properties
rarely
come
out
of
the
cycle
in
the
same
form
in
which
they
went
in.
Paraphrasing
what
a
senior
manager
of
a
German
open-end
fund
said
to
me
when
he
came
to
sell
properties
at
the
time
of
the
fund’s
liquidation:
“I
don’t
understand
it.
I
bought
core
properties
when
the
fund
was
in
the
investment
phase.
Now,
when
I
come
to
sell
them,
they
are
value-add
properties”.
He
might
have
added
that
some
of
those
that
were
really
value-add
had
become
opportunistic.
Many
of
the
properties
were
sold
at
30%+
below
their
current
valuations
well
into
the
recovery
of
European
markets, suggesting that even the valuers had not properly understood what had happened.
The
problem
is
that,
other
than
prime,
the
depreciation
in
properties
during
a
down-turn,
when
tenant
demand
subdues,
accelerates
dramatically.
When
tenants
have
little
choice,
they
take
what
is
available
and
even
compete
for
it.
When
the
market
swings
the
other
way,
the
tenants
in
poor
premises
either
find
better
space
or
fail.
The
latter
are
in
poor
space
because
their
profit
margins are thin and are prone to failure
The
smart,
or
sharp,
investors
will
try
to
anticipate
the
down-turn
and
off-load
their
marginal
properties.
These
are
the
properties
that
appeared
to
be
‘cheap’
when
purchased
in
the
growth
phase
and
which
may
have,
in
that
phase,
even
benefited
from
a
significant
‘re-rating’,
producing
good
but
not
exceptional
returns.
My
main
list
of
properties
of
properties
in
this
category
runs
something like this:
Long
leased
properties
let
to
oc
cupiers
who
would
rather
not
be
there.
These
are
sometimes
created
through
sale-and-leaseback,
a
situation
in
which
the
asymmetry
of
intelligence
favours
the
tenant
Buildings
and
locations
that
are
exposed
to
the
advances
of
technology,
which
does
not
slow
during
down-turns.
This
applies
particularly
to
retail
property
and
most
of
it
falls
into
this
category
Office
and
other
investments
in
the
fringe
of
core.
If
the
pedestrian
footfall
in
these
areas
is
poor,
with
little
obvious
commercial
activity,
then
this
is
a
marginal
location.
For
these,
ignore
the building quality
Relatively
high
office
buildings
with
small
floorplates.
These
are
inefficient
for
space
users
and
tenants
quickly
realise
that.
A
modern
building
should
have
floorplates
well
in
excess
of
5,000 sq ft (500 sq m)
Dilapidated
buildings
occupied
by
tenants
who
can
barely
afford
the
rent.
They
may
have
been
bought
with
refurbishment/redevelopment
opportunities
in
mind,
but
a
downturn
is
not
a
good time to hold an empty building
Almost
everything
that
might
be
described
as
‘secondary’
property,
even
if
it
is
high
yielding
I
do
not
think
that
the
current
downturn
will
be
anywhere
near
as
detrimental
to
values
as,
say,
that
of
2008/9,
but
it
has
only
just
started.
What
we
are
seeing
currently
is
an
increase
in
unemployment
numbers,
despite
the
government’s
furlough
scheme
(which
covers
the
majority
of
a
worker’s
salary,
subject
to
limits)
is
an
increase
in
company
profit
warnings
accompanied
by
falls in earnings. That is a prelude to an economic down-turn, which is the real trigger.
The
down-turn
will
also
be
mitigated
by
the
lack
of
alternative
investments
and
the
poor
return
on cash - meaning that investors will not want to stay out of the market for too long.
It
is
axiomatic
that
prime
property
will
do
well
because
it
provides
security
of
income.
But
not
all
prime
property
is
equal.
Investors
need
to
retain
property
where
there
is
value
in
the
building
but,
equally
importantly,
in
the
land.
Location,
in
downturns,
is
key.
Developments
may
appear
risky, but in the right location, they might become the best performers in the next growth phase.
Start managing the real estate risks now
Ltd